63% of Fuerteventura entrepreneurs anticipate stagnation or stability

The business climate closed 2025 better than expected, especially across the Canary Islands as a whole. However, on Fuerteventura the outlook is largely cautious—and even pessimistic—as the new year begins.

According to the Business Confidence Index (ICE) presented by the Fuerteventura Chamber of Commerce on Thursday, 62.7 % of island entrepreneurs expect a situation of stagnation or stability during the first quarter of 2026. This figure sets the tone of caution for the coming fiscal year.

“Fuerteventura presents doubts for 2026,” the Chamber noted, even though the island still outperforms regional forecasts.

The Strong 2025 Year‑End Did Not Prevent a Cooling of Expectations

• Business‑expectations index:
  • Q4 2025: 15.7 points
  • Q1 2026: 5.9 points (a drop of 9.8 points)
  • Although still positive, the decline signals a significant shift.
• Canary Islands overall: 8.9 points in Q1 2026, above Fuerteventura’s figure.

A Better‑Than‑Expected 2025 Close

• Favorable rating: 32.4 % of establishments rated the last quarter as favorable, versus a 17.7‑point real situation—a +6.7‑point improvement over initial forecasts.
• Archipelago average: 17.9 points, also surpassing expectations.

Investment

• 2025: Positive balance of +7.8 points, beating the regional average of +3.3 points.
• Q1 2026 forecast: ‑9.8 points, indicating a sharp slowdown and the paralysis or reservation of projects by the business community.

Exports (including tourism services)

• Q4 2025: ‑20.0 points (negative).
• Q1 2026 forecast: ‑25.0 points, worsening the outlook and becoming one of the main drags on the island’s economy.

Employment

• The only indicator remaining positive:
  • 2025: +2.0 points
  • Q1 2026 forecast: +1.0 point
  • Suggests maintenance of staff levels and a modest short‑term stability.

Sectoral Highlights

• Transport and hospitality: Continue to drive the regional economy, ending 2025 13.1 points above expectations, with positive scores in both employment and investment.
• Construction: Remains the most pessimistic sector, showing a real employment balance of ‑12.7 points and a forecast shortfall of 5.8 points.

Overall Outlook

The ICE data paint a picture of Fuerteventura shifting from the optimism of a strong 2025 finish to a prudent phase marked by stagnation, a sharp decline in investment, and a retreat in exports. Despite these challenges, employment remains stable, and the broader Canary Islands context stays slightly more favorable.