Canary Islands will add only one worker for every 3.3 retirees in the next decade

1.8 million young people will enter the labour market against 5.3 million workers who will retire in ten years.

The labour market in the Canary Islands will integrate just one new employee for every 3.3 workers who retire over the next decade – a ratio that exceeds the national average of 2.9, according to the Vulnerability and Employment Observatory of the Adecco Foundation.

Regional replacement ratios

The eight autonomous communities with the most unfavourable generational turnover (higher retirees per new entrant) are:

• Basque Country: 4.6 retirees per new worker
• Castile and León: 4.4
• Galicia: 4.4
• Asturias: 4.0
• Extremadura: 3.6
• Cantabria: 3.5
• Canary Islands: 3.3
• Navarre: 3.1

These regions generally exhibit a high ageing rate and/or a youth activity rate below the national level. For example, the Basque Country – which tops the list – has a labour‑market participation of only 27 % among people under 25, compared with the national figure of 37.8 %.

Conversely, Murcia (2.0), Catalonia (2.2) and the Balearic Islands (2.6) show a slightly more favourable, though still critical, generational replacement outlook.

National picture

Across Spain, the labour market will absorb only one‑third of the workers who retire in the next ten years:

• 5,318,600 people aged 55 + will leave employment.
• **4,831 youngsters aged 6‑15 will reach the legal working age.
• Of those, 1,826,197 are expected to become active workers, based on the 37.8 % activity rate for under‑25s recorded in the latest Active Population Survey (EPA).

Adecco’s recommendations

Adecco stresses that sustaining the competitiveness of the Spanish labour market will require full activation of available potential, through:

• Migration: integrating migrant workers, especially in sectors with labour shortages.
• Inclusion: promoting women, people with disabilities, and senior professionals.
• Technology: leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and automation.

“Migration will be key to sustaining the labour market, especially in sectors with a shortage of workers, but it is not enough on its own. We must up‑skill and re‑skill both native and migrant talent with ambitious active policies: digital and technical training, fast‑track recognition of qualifications, competency accreditation, and combating labour discrimination,”
— Francisco Mesonero, General Director of the Adecco Foundation and Sustainability Director of The Adecco Group.

Migration outlook

Between 2026 and 2035, Spain is expected to receive 4.6 million foreign nationals. Approximately 80 % will be of working age, and 70 % of them will actively look for jobs – roughly 2.5 million potential entrants to the labour market.

Senior talent

Mesonero also highlights the importance of senior workers, who now represent 35 % of Spain’s active population. Their continued participation helps mitigate theational deficit and sustains productive capacity.

AI and automation: levers, not stand‑alone solutions

Adecco points out that AI and automation can partially offset the capacity gap created by ageing, enabling the existing workforce to fill vacancies in sectors such as:

• Care services
• Logistics
• Industry
• Agriculture
• Administration
• Tourism

“AI and automation will not solve the demographic challenge by themselves, but they are decisive levers to do more with the workforce we have,”
— Francisco Mesonero.