Canary Islands

Excelcan draws a “quiet” year‑end for the archipelago’s economic engine

Canarias is heading into the final stretch of 2025 with a tailwind from tourism. The Excelcan business alliance projects between 18.4 million and 18.6 million visitors by 31 December, roughly one million more than in 2024, and a tourism turnover of €22.7 billion, €600‑700 million above the previous year. The forecast confirms a strong demand cycle that is now stabilising after the post‑pandemic peaks.

A second quarter with more tourists and higher spending, but slightly shorter stays

The April‑June balance shows 4.1 million tourists (+5.82 % YoY) and €4.4 billion in spending (+3.54 %). Key indicators rose, except for average stay (‑0.24 %) and overnight stays (‑0.53 %), with a modest rebound in June. These are typical seasonal signals in a quarter that overlaps with competitors’ season starts and a “normal” market without double‑digit growth.

“The tourism scenario is quiet,” summarized the report’s author, … José Miguel González (Corporación 5). He anticipates more tourists, higher profitability and greater turnover by year‑end, with travelers arriving, spending and moving more. Excelcan – which groups companies such as Lopesan, Satocan, THE Hoteles, Binter and Loro Parque – estimates 98 million overnight stays in 2025.

Connectivity: semester record with isolated cloudbursts

Air connectivity reinforces optimism. Canary Islands airports handled 27.0 million passengers in the first half of the year, a 4.8 % increase over the previous year (16.2 million international and 10.6 million domestic). June alone recorded 4.1 million travelers (+4.7 %). This is a direct barometer of demand and the archipelago’s attractiveness.

Francisco: “You can’t do without food or holidays”

Risks are emerging, notably Ryanair’s announcement of winter‑season cuts that will remove about 400,000 seats in the Canaries, including the Tenerife North route, as part of its Spain‑wide adjustment due to higher taxes. The impact will need monitoring, especially on islands and routes with fewer alternatives.

Germany slows, but travel is now a “necessary expense”

Excelcan’s vice‑president José Carlos Francisco said the slowdown is “inevitable” – a return to normality and competition from the Middle East and Southeast Asia – and noted that Germany, the top European source market for the Canaries, “is not ready to launch rockets.” Nevertheless, post‑pandemic travel has become an essential expense for families.

“You can’t do without food or holidays,” he emphasized.

All in all, tourism continues to drive the economy

The sector, as always, sustains employment. Under this scenario, Excelcan projects a +3.49 % YoY increase in the second quarter. Moreover, €700 million in new hotel investments underpins the idea of a “dynamic” market with growing international interest, according to its president, Santiago de Armas. The current brake is not demand but a lack of qualified staff, which is beginning to limit growth.

The Excelcan alliance – comprising Canarian firms such as Lopesan, Binter, Grupo Newport, Loro Parque, Satocan and THE Hoteles – presented its second‑quarter tourism outlook on Tuesday.

From a bird’s‑eye view, tourism remains a systemic pillar. In 2023 it contributed €21.424 billion, 36.8 % of the Canary Islands’ GDP, and 358,230 direct and indirect jobs, according to the latest Impactur (Exceltur and Canary Government) report – a historic high that explains why every tourism fluctuation reverberates throughout the regional economy.

Holiday housing: putting “order” into a boiling market

Regulatory debate will keep shaping the agenda. Francisco argued that the sector needs “a bit of order” in holiday housing, which has taken over many tourist apartments. In Parliament, the Sustainable Use of Tourist Housing Law is being processed, aimed at balancing the right to housing with tourism pressure on urban and tourist land.