Cathaysa Arrives in the Canary Islands on January 1

The islands will be affected by this cold front on the 1st and by other weaker disturbances until January 4.

For several days now, models have been showing the formation of a polar low that will affect the archipelago from January 1. This disturbance, although distant, will bring precipitation to the islands until January 4, according to Meteo Canaria Komando Atis Tirma, who have named it Cathaysa as part of a practice of using island names for such phenomena that reach the islands.

It is a deep low‑pressure system of less than 988 mb that will be located west of the Iberian Peninsula, with several secondary low‑pressure vortices, generating a storm of rain, snow, and wind over Spain and Portugal.

In the Canary Islands, on days 1 and 2, there will be an upper‑level trough with a long associated cold front, possibly giving rise to another secondary vortex near the archipelago.

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From the 31st the wind will shift to a south‑southwest component, with a slight temperature increase and likely cloudiness in the south and east of the islands, tied to the terrain, which could bring some rain of minor significance. A calm end of the year across all areas, explains the well‑known meteorological group.

During the morning of the 1st the front will penetrate from the west, bringing moderate to heavy rain to the western islands, possibly persisting in the west and on the peaks of La Palma, where accumulations of more than 60 mm could be recorded during the day.

“As the inaugural day of the year progresses, the front will move from west to east, leaving more pronounced precipitation in the south and west of the higher‑relief islands, mainly in mid‑elevations and peaks. It is likely that as the front advances it will weaken, reaching the eastern edge of the archipelago with less precipitation on the 2nd, although the GFS model suggests a potential instability over Fuerteventura and Lanzarote, not reflected in the precipitation fields. We will see how this turns out for the two easternmost islands,” says Meteo Canaria Komando Atis Tirma.

During the 2nd, the wind will shift to west‑northwest, bringing the first humid disturbance that will produce weak to moderate precipitation in the north of the islands.

During the 3rd models indicate the formation of another more active disturbance that could bring locally strong precipitation in the north of the islands, with an increase in wind that may produce strong northwesterly gusts, reaching 70–80 km/h, and a background sea from the northwest of 2.5 to 4 meters.

For the 4th, the final trailing disturbance would bring weak to moderate rain in the north, with a temperature drop and possible snow squalls on the peaks of Tenerife and La Palma.