Over 6,000 events in Tenerife increase volcanic "noise"
“The probability is never zero, but in principle it hasn’t changed compared with what it would have been a few years ago when we didn’t have this volcanic background noise we have now.”
The island of Tenerife is experiencing its fifth seismic swarm in less than two weeks, with just over 1,000 hybrid events. Since volcanic activity resumed west of Las Cañadas del Teide almost three weeks ago, the total number of events has surpassed 6,000, occurring at depths of roughly 8‑10 km.
The director of the National Geographic Institute (IGN), Itahiza Domínguez, explained this to the media after a meeting with the Tenerife Cabildo and the island’s 31 municipalities. He emphasized that the likelihood of a volcanic eruption in the short or medium term remains low.
Domínguez clarified that the “swarms” consist of very small events, almost imperceptible to sensors and not felt by the population. He estimates that the count should be around a thousand, although “there are probably more because they pile up on each other and are very hard to count.”
He added that the number of events is not significant because the energy they release is extremely low, not even adding up to a magnitude‑2 or ‑3 earthquake, and therefore “nothing to be worried about.”
Nevertheless, he noted that transitioning from one phase to another can happen quickly. A basaltic eruption, which could occur on the island, would be preceded by stronger, population‑felt earthquakes.
“The probability is never zero, but in principle it hasn’t changed compared with what it would have been a few years ago when we didn’t have this volcanic background noise we have now.”
Domínguez stressed that, despite the modest contributions, the conclusions of the entire scientific community monitoring the island—IGN, Involcan, CSIC, Canary universities, and Involcan—remain the same.
He also pointed out that the 11 swarms recorded since 2016, five of which have occurred in less than two weeks, do not necessarily imply anything beyond the fact that volcanic activity on the island is “higher.”
According to him, ten or twenty years ago the equipment and scientific information available were far less advanced, making it unclear whether this pattern represents a “normal behavior” of a volcanic island or “something more abnormal than usual.” He cited an Italian volcano that has been in a similar situation for over 60 years as an example.
Waiting for New Signals
“We could return to calm in a few weeks, we don’t know. Right now we don’t know; we can’t forecast that part because it’s not possible, but we do expect other signals. That’s what matters, and that’s why we try to convey that we still have to wait for other types of signals to be sure something is happening.”
Among the signals he highlighted are earthquakes and geochemical indicators typically observed in fumaroles or around Teide, which are currently not being detected. He also linked a possible eruption to the municipalities of Santiago del Teide and Guía de Isora, noting that magma can migrate and emerge elsewhere.
“The fact that activity is at this point means absolutely nothing.”
If an eruption does occur, it is expected to be basaltic, either along the dorsal zones or very close to Teide.
Domínguez insisted that, from a scientific standpoint, the island is well prepared, with a detection capacity much greater than ten years ago, thanks to both IGN and Involcan operating more than a hundred monitoring stations. “All eyes are on it, and obviously, if we saw any change, we would communicate it,” he explained.
He also warned that misinformation has always surrounded volcanism, and the rise of social media makes it “inevitable.” Authorities are working to combat false rumors by providing accurate information.