US think tank urges Morocco to launch a Green March to reclaim Ceuta and Melilla

In a column published by the American Enterprise Institute, analyst Michael Rubin suggests such a possibility and implicates the Canary Islands.

The tension surrounding global geopolitics involves numerous small actors that specialize in sowing uncertainty about the stability of third‑party states. In this context, Michael Rubin—former official of a powerful neoconservative American think‑tank—states:

“Pedro Sánchez, president of the Spanish government, should move from words to deeds in his anti‑colonial discourse and end the occupation of African territories by Spain,” Rubin, also a former Pentagon official, wrote in an article published by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI), an influential neoconservative think‑tank.

Rubin goes further, proposing that “Mohammed VI should revive the spirit of the Green March to complete the expulsion of Spanish settlers from Moroccan territory.” He even suggests that Moroccans “deploy excavators at the border and then peacefully enter Ceuta and Melilla to raise the Moroccan flag.”

Should the Canary Islands Be Concerned?

The expert also presents a legal argument: according to the NATO treaty, such an action would not automatically trigger a collective response.

“Article 6 is clear: ‘For the purposes of Article 5, an armed attack against one or more Parties includes an armed attack against the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America… or against islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area, north of the Tropic of Cancer.’ Neither Ceuta, nor Melilla, nor the Canary Islands would activate a NATO response, just as NATO would not be obliged to react to an attack against Hawaii or Puerto Rico,” he explains.

In June 2022, during the NATO summit in Madrid, Spain attempted to explicitly extend the Alliance’s protection to Ceuta and Melilla. The initiative failed despite an intense Spanish diplomatic campaign focused on the “southern threats” confronting the Alliance.

Rubin’s stance is framed within a broader context of tensions between the Spanish government and U.S. President Donald Trump, who threatened on 3 March to break relations with Spain, a warning he reiterated on 11 March.