The strongest El Niño in 140 years will unleash extreme weather worldwide

In the Canary Islands it will not affect as much due to distance, but more heat, warmer sea water and dust storms are expected

The U.S. climate agency NOAA forecasts a 62 % chance that an El Niño event will develop between June and August. The phenomenon could last at least until the end of December and trigger extreme weather worldwide.

European and American climate models already suggest that this could be one of the most powerful El Niño episodes in the last 140 years, bringing widespread climatic disruptions across the planet.

In the Canary Islands the event will intensify drought, raise sea‑surface temperatures and increase overall heat. However, because of the islands’ distance from the Pacific and the influence of cold‑water currents from the North Atlantic, the impacts will be less severe than in other regions.

The conditions for a strong El Niño are already in place: a significant amount of thermal energy has accumulated in the upper 300 metres of the affected Pacific region.

“Everything is developing according to theoretical principles,” experts explain.

The decisive factor is random wind fluctuations, which can either amplify or weaken the event.

“But random wind fluctuations still exist and can act in different directions,” oceanographers add.

The heat stored in the Pacific will not simply disappear; it can only be released through the atmosphere, ultimately giving rise to another El Niño.

Devastating Global Consequences of the Climate Phenomenon

The event triggers a chain reaction that impacts various parts of the world in very different ways. Warm water masses and clouds move near the equator toward the usually dry western coast of South America, often resulting in catastrophic floods that devastate the continent and, through atmospheric interactions, also affect several East African countries.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Southeast Asia, eastern Australia and parts of southeastern Africa experience the reverse effects: droughts and forest fires increase dramatically. La Niña, the counterpart of El Niño, brings practically opposite conditions.

Climate Change Is Exacerbating the Situation

Experts highlight the recent temperature trends as particularly noteworthy. Although tropical Pacific conditions resembling La Niña should have a cooling effect, global sea‑surface and air temperatures have been unusually high. Currently, Pacific conditions are neutral, yet temperatures are already approaching record levels again.

“If we are already heading toward another record under these conditions, it shows how far climate change is influencing the climate,” warns a researcher from Kiel.

Phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña now occur at significantly higher temperatures than in the past. Consequently, a new world‑wide temperature record could be set even without an El Niño, notes climatologist Latif. However, if this strong El Niño does materialize, it would further intensify global warming.